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ORANGE COUNTY housing forecast | 2019 Forecast

November 28, 2018

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We're talking about what we in the real estate industry call a change in the market. Below is the latest from the Orange County Housing Report. For the most up-to-date market data, please Sign Up Now to receive real-time housing reports. We deliver the full/downloadable market reports and charts to your inbox every month.

 

As always, if you or any of your friends or family have real estate goals going into 2019, please don’t hesitate to Contact Us. We are only a call, text or email away!

 

ORANGE COUNTY Housing Forecasts | 2019 Forecast

 

Orange County Housing Forecast | 2018 Review

 

Distressed Inventory: Low distressed inventory in 2018 - Correct!

Housing Cycle: Normal housing cycle in 2018 - Correct!

 

Active Inventory: Anemic inventory to start the year - Correct!

Rise in Inventory: Rise in active inventory to 7,000 in 2018 - Correct!

 

Upper Ranges: Muted activity in Spring, especially sluggish mid-Summer - Correct!

Move-Up Sellers: Increase move-up sellers in 2018 - Correct!

 

Cautious Buyers: Stretch first half and become cautious in last half of year - Correct!

Interest Rates: Interest rates will average 4.35% in 2018 - Correct! {Average 4.5%}

 

Orange County Housing Forecast | 2019 Forecast

 

Distressed Inventory: Slight rise in distressed inventory in 2019.

Housing Cycle: Normal housing cycle, BUT muted activity in 2019.

 

Active Inventory: About 5,500 homes to start the year versus 3,397 in 2018.

Rise in Inventory: Rise in active inventory from 8,000 to 8,500 homes in 2019.

 

Upper Ranges: Muted activity in Spring, especially sluggish mid-Summer next year.

Move-Up Sellers: Fewer number of move-up sellers in 2019.

 

Fence-Sitting Buyers: Buyers will remain extremely cautious in 2019.

Interest Rates: Interest rates will average 5.2% in 2019.

 

Annual Appreciation: Appreciation will plateau in 2019. 

Closed Sales: Closed sales will not increase in 2019. 

 

Cracks Appearing 

 

With an Expected Market Time of 128 days middle of November, the market transitioned into Buyer's Market territory for the first time since January 2011. Buyers' expectations have evolved, and sellers must price accordingly. 

 

Active Inventory  Increased 112% since January 1, 2018. 

 

That is 53% higher than last year at the same time. Here is the breakdown: 

 

$0 - $500k: +541 Inventory  / +74% Year Over Year Change

$500k - $750k: +634 Inventory  / +52% Year Over Year Change

$750k - $1m: +593 Inventory  / +73% Year Over Year Change

$1m - $1.25m: +150 Inventory  / +36% Year Over Year Change

$1.25m - $1.5m: +121 Inventory  / +33% Year Over Year Change

Above $1.5m: +435 Inventory  / +25% Year Over Year Change

Overall: +2,353 Inventory  / +48% Year Over Year Change

 

Housing Demand – Over 30% lower than same time last year.

 

Here is the breakdown:

 

$0 - $500k: -211 Inventory  / -35% Year Over Year Change

$500k - $750k: -214 Inventory  / -25% Year Over Year Change

$750k - $1m: -59 Inventory  / -12% Year Over Year Change

$1m - $1.25m: -4 Inventory  / -3% Year Over Year Change

$1.25m - $1.5m: -26 Inventory  / -24% Year Over Year Change

Above $1.5m: -65 Inventory  / -20% Year Over Year Change

Overall: -553 Inventory  / -23% Year Over Year Change

 

Expected Market Time – Approximately 128 Days in Orange County.

 

Here is the breakdown:

 

>150 Days: Deep Buyer's Market

120 - 150 Days: Buyer's Market

90 - 120 Days: Balanced Market

60 - 90 Days: Seller's Market

< 60 Days: Hot Seller's Market 

What does that mean? The market transitioned into Buyer's Market territory.

 

The Takeaway 

 

Best advice for a buyer: Buyers need to remember that it is NOT a Deep Buyer’s Market. Sellers are still able to fetch the Fair Market Value of a home, considering the comparable sales and factoring in a home’s condition and overall appeal. Values are NOT dropping.

 

Best advice for a seller: For now, the evolving market is a bit more challenging for sellers than what what you may have been used to. Unrealistically priced listings will not succeed. It necessitates a much more cautious, deliberate approach to the housing market.

 

Best seller advice: you should rely on the professional analysis and advice of a seasoned REALTOR®. That's where we at The Swan Team come in!

 

 

What is my home worth?

 

Request your FREE Neighborhood Update HERE

 

You DON'T have to feel like the neighborhood lookie-loo. You DON'T even have to call, text, or email us. Get a comprehensive market analysis for your home and your specific area. That's what our Neighborhood Updates are for!

If you want to receive real-time Orange County Housing Reports to your inbox every month – for the full/downloadable market reports and charts – Sign Up Now!

 

The Swan Team | OC Real Estate

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